Analytics
Yes is at 5.5%, down 11 points from 16.5% when the market opened on 13 Aug 2026.
Across the 71 daily closes on record from 13 Aug 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (8 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 44% on 29 Aug 2026 and the lowest 4.5% on 29 Sep 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 5.5%; a month before, 9.5%. Its largest one-day move was 30 points up, to 44% on 29 Aug 2026.
$876.85 traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $362.97, with a 1.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 42 trades, $21.72 bought Yes and $458.87 bought No.
The largest Yes position is xtxpleasecallme with 196 shares; the largest No position is Spectrum with 214. Ten wallets hold 97.7% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 63 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 10:47 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 71 points, 13 Aug 2026 – 30 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 13 Aug 2026 | 16.5% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 5.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Spectrum | No | 214 |
| xtxpleasecallme | Yes | 195.98 |
| grauito | No | 72 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that reduces the federal taxes individuals owe on long-term capital gains by changing how those gains are taxed or calculated is enacted into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying change does not need to apply to all taxpayers or all long-term capital gains. Legislation will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" if it directly reduces or eliminates federal tax owed on long-term capital gains for individuals generally or for a defined class of taxpayers or gains, including through a tax rate reduction, exemption or exclusion, change in applicable thresholds, change in how basis or gains are calculated, or another statutory mechanism. The qualifying change can take effect outside of this market's timeframe. Temporary reductions or breaks will count. Changes that only defer when tax is paid, or that reduce a taxpayer's overall federal tax liability without specifically changing the taxation or calculation of long-term capital gains, will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/federal-capital-gains-taxes-be-cut-by-2026-20260812124430709
| Slow-Exhibit |
| No |
| 60 |
| conherence | Yes | 39.22 |
| lolzzzlol | Yes | 36.77 |
| Haradwaith | Yes | 24 |
| GuyFromTinder | Yes | 19.53 |
| 2B9S | Yes | 17 |
| Numitus1994 | Yes | 16.81 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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