Analytics
Resolved No on 2 Oct 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.6%. Yes opened at 27.5% on 6 Aug 2026. Before it settled, across the 58 daily closes on record from 6 Aug 2026 to 2 Oct 2026, the highest close was 27.5% on 6 Aug 2026 and the lowest 0.4% on 2 Oct 2026. Its largest one-day move was 9.5 points down, to 18% on 7 Aug 2026. $4.21K traded over the market's life.
15 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 2, 8:41 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 58 points, 6 Aug 2026 – 2 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–40%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 6 Aug 2026 | 27.5% |
| 2 Oct 2026 | 0.4% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Attached-Prairie | Yes | 327.77 |
| b41eAd279375742D6C2A1A2239Bdce56376411fD. | Yes | 160 |
| 74744886D1081ab236510E04c5b617b914A3Cef7. | Yes | 150 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a partial or full United States federal government lapse in appropriations occurs on October 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A lapse in appropriations occurs when Congress and the President fail to enact legislation providing funding authority for federal government operations by an applicable deadline, resulting in a funding lapse. A lapse of any duration affecting any portion of the United States federal government will qualify, regardless of whether it results in any operational impact. A subsequent government shutdown is not necessary for this market to resolve to "Yes". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government, including from Congress.gov; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/federal-appropriations-lapse-on-october-1-20260804220923652
| Yes |
| 93 |
| 79fsdfs | Yes | 78.22 |
| Jade Beacon E3EA | Yes | 43.08 |
| PPMT | Yes | 30 |
| GuyFromTinder | Yes | 20 |
| jfkjdfj3 | Yes | 20 |
| TENETENET | Yes | 10 |
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