Analytics
Resolved No on 10 Dec 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.4%. Yes opened at 16.5% on 30 Dec 2024. Before it settled, across the 346 daily closes on record from 30 Dec 2024 to 10 Dec 2025, the highest close was 25.5% on 9 Jan 2025 and the lowest 0.4% on 8 Dec 2025. Its largest one-day move was 5.5 points up, to 22% on 13 Feb 2025. $1.18M traded over the market's life.
256 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Dec 12, 12:34 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 346 points, 30 Dec 2024 – 10 Dec 2025, chart shows 0%–40%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 30 Dec 2024 | 16.5% |
| 10 Dec 2025 | 0.6% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| joeevilinc | Yes | 18.7K |
| Sorrowful-Miscommunication | Yes | 9.95K |
| LiterallyGod | Yes | 6.76K |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2025 and the Fed's December 2025 meeting, currently scheduled for December 9-10. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate changes information following its December meeting. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/fed-rate-hike-in-2025
| zetathek1lla | Yes | 5.94K |
| ghost345678910 | Yes | 5.75K |
| DeusCapital | Yes | 5.13K |
| Royal Falcon 46E4 | Yes | 5K |
| Akshit07 | Yes | 4.74K |
| SirJoe222 | Yes | 4.49K |
| theauthoritee | Yes | 3.98K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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