Analytics
Resolved No on 7 Nov 2024.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.7%. Yes opened at 2.5% on 3 Aug 2024. Before it settled, across the 97 daily closes on record from 3 Aug 2024 to 7 Nov 2024, the highest close was 2.5% on 3 Aug 2024 and the lowest 0.1% on 22 Sep 2024. $133.96M traded over the market's life.
306 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Nov 8, 10:43 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 97 points, 3 Aug 2024 – 7 Nov 2024, chart shows 0%–10%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 3 Aug 2024 | 2.5% |
| 7 Nov 2024 | 0.3% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 3.55M |
| Arctic0013 | Yes | 40K |
| WayneChain | Yes | 36.88K |
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to “Yes” if following the Federal Reserve's November 2024 meeting the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased by 25 or more basis points below the level it was prior to the meeting. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for November 6 - 7, 2024 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their November meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by December 18, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/fed-interest-rates-november-2024
| Yes |
| 35K |
| Bumpy-Molar | Yes | 32.55K |
| lucasvfa | Yes | 25.01K |
| BrandonE | Yes | 25K |
| qrpenc | Yes | 24.55K |
| toxiev3 | Yes | 24K |
| bboo | Yes | 10.19K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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