Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2024 meeting?

politicsResolved

No, settled Jun 12, 2024 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$582.7K

Resolved

Settled

Jun 12, 2024 UTC

Topic roomFed and FOMC

Where it stands

Resolved No on 12 Jun 2024.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.3%. Yes opened at 1.9% on 2 May 2024. Before it settled, across the 42 daily closes on record from 2 May 2024 to 12 Jun 2024, the highest close was 2% on 3 May 2024 and the lowest 0.1% on 8 Jun 2024. $582.73K traded over the market's life.

20 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Jun 13, 7:26 PM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 42 points, 2 May 2024 – 12 Jun 2024, chart shows 0%–10%

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
2 May 2024	1.9%
12 Jun 2024	0.7%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Indigo Signal 2966	No	453.11K
gremplin	Yes	6.66K
Trustworthy-Graffiti	Yes	2.54K

10 of 20 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to “Yes” if following the Federal Reserve's June 2024 meeting the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased by 25 or more basis points below the level it was prior to the meeting. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 11 - June 12, 2024 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by June 30, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.