
Resolved No on 29 Jan 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 8% on 8 Nov 2024. Before it settled, across the 83 daily closes on record from 8 Nov 2024 to 29 Jan 2025, the highest close was 8% on 8 Nov 2024 and the lowest 0.1% on 24 Jan 2025. Its largest one-day move was 6.9 points down, to 1.1% on 9 Nov 2024. $48.84M traded over the market's life.
744 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 30, 10:38 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 83 points, 8 Nov 2024 – 29 Jan 2025, chart shows 0%–10%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 8 Nov 2024 | 8.0% |
| 29 Jan 2025 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 11.5M |
| DaddyBets7 | Yes | 1.2M |
| moosikmoose1 | Yes | 1.13M |
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to “Yes” if following the Federal Reserve's January 2025 meeting the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased by 51 or more basis points below the level it was prior to the meeting. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 30 - 31, 2025 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/fed-interest-rates-january-2025
| Yes |
| 925.22K |
| Indigo Pioneer D5AA | Yes | 598.2K |
| Azure Pulse 8410 | Yes | 537.38K |
| pers2 | Yes | 525.26K |
| stevy888 | Yes | 500K |
| Lunar Comet 2E9A | Yes | 499.5K |
| Bold Atlas 5E2F | Yes | 368.89K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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