Analytics
Resolved No on 19 Mar 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.8%. Yes opened at 4.5% on 19 Dec 2024. Before it settled, across the 91 daily closes on record from 19 Dec 2024 to 19 Mar 2025, the highest close was 5% on 20 Dec 2024 and the lowest 0.1% on 15 Mar 2025. $22.15M traded over the market's life.
454 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Mar 20, 9:29 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 91 points, 19 Dec 2024 – 19 Mar 2025, chart shows 0%–10%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 19 Dec 2024 | 4.5% |
| 19 Mar 2025 | 0.3% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 8M |
| TyroneM | Yes | 956.86K |
| ChinaBlock | Yes | 504.38K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to “Yes” if following the Federal Reserve's March 2025 meeting the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased by 26 or more basis points below the level it was prior to the meeting. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for March 18 - 19, 2025 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their March meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-march
| Yes |
| 193.83K |
| sugardaddy3 | Yes | 156.95K |
| sleepyhollow | Yes | 156.31K |
| reews | Yes | 150K |
| Wiggly-Atheist | Yes | 123K |
| dogtheorist2 | Yes | 112K |
| QDMiner | Yes | 100K |
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