Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2024 meeting?

economyResolved

No, settled Sep 18, 2024 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$6.7M

Resolved

Settled

Sep 18, 2024 UTC

Topic roomFed and FOMC

Where it stands

Resolved No on 18 Sep 2024.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 55.1%. Yes opened at 86% on 26 Jul 2024. Before it settled, across the 55 daily closes on record from 26 Jul 2024 to 18 Sep 2024, the highest close was 90.5% on 12 Sep 2024 and the lowest 37.5% on 6 Aug 2024. Its largest one-day move was 31 points down, to 45% on 3 Aug 2024. $6.66M traded over the market's life.

525 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Sep 19, 9:10 PM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 55 points, 26 Jul 2024 – 18 Sep 2024

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Indigo Signal 2966	No	8.03M
nopenopen	Yes	250.88K
ethan4444	Yes	61.8K

10 of 525 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to “Yes” if following the Federal Reserve's September 2024 meeting the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased by exactly 25 basis points below the level it was prior to the meeting. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 17 - 18, 2024 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by November 6, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.