Favorite to win on Polymarket week after debate?

politicsResolved

Kamala, settled Sep 17, 2024 UTC

Kamala

100.0%

Trump

0.0%

Final Kamala 100¢Final Trump 0¢

Lifetime volume

$2.7M

Resolved

Kamala

Settled

Sep 17, 2024 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved Kamala on 17 Sep 2024.

The last daily price before settlement had Kamala at 64%. The Kamala side opened at 31.5% on 4 Sep 2024. Before it settled, across the 14 daily closes on record from 4 Sep 2024 to 17 Sep 2024, the highest close was 79.5% on 15 Sep 2024 and the lowest 29% on 5 Sep 2024. Its largest one-day move was 22 points up, to 53% on 12 Sep 2024. $2.72M traded over the market's life.

245 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Sep 18, 8:06 PM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Kamala price, Polymarket CLOB, 14 points, 4 Sep 2024 – 17 Sep 2024

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
QQQ777	Trump	17.99K
RememberAmalek	Trump	16.61K
TopSquirrel	Trump	14.75K
wanyewest69	Kamala	12.13K

10 of 245 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are currently scheduled to debate on September 10 in an event hosted by ABC News. This market will resolve to “Kamala” if Kamala Harris is the Polymarket favorite to win the election one week after the debate. This market will resolve to “Trump” if Donald Trump is the favorite to win. The favorite to win one week after the debate will be determined by looking at the 4 hour time window seven days after the debate (which is currently September 17), between 12 PM ET and 4 PM ET. This market will resolve to whichever candidate is ahead more than the other during this period. The resolution source will be a comparison between the charts for each candidate found at https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-2024 when the “6H” option is selected and decimals are turned on (settings icon -> Decimals toggled on). If the debate is postponed, the rules will apply to the date one week after the first debate. If no debate occurs before the election, this market will resolve to 50-50. The relevant data points will be those each minute during 12 PM ET to 4 PM ET (i.e. 12:00, 12:01 up to 3:59 PM ET) for each of the candidates. Each of these data points will be compared minute-by-minute, and this market will resolve to whichever candidate is ahead more than the other. For example if they are tied in 160 data points, Trump is ahead in 60 data points, and Harris is ahead in 20 data points, this market would resolve to "Trump."