Analytics
Resolved Yes on 16 Aug 2024.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 100%. Yes opened at 94% on 15 Jul 2024. Before it settled, across the 33 daily closes on record from 15 Jul 2024 to 16 Aug 2024, the highest close was 100% on 16 Aug 2024 and the lowest 81% on 24 Jul 2024. Its largest one-day move was 13 points down, to 81% on 24 Jul 2024. $1.06M traded over the market's life.
23 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Aug 17, 5:07 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 33 points, 15 Jul 2024 – 16 Aug 2024, chart shows 75%–100%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 15 Jul 2024 | 94.0% |
| 16 Aug 2024 | 100.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| pu15ar | No | 5.31K |
| Flyingkites | No | 5K |
| TriaKube | No | 2.09K |
| Fortunate-Marathon | No | 250 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that the shooter at Trump's rally was a rogue actor - namely he did not work with others in planning and/or perpetrating this act. This market will resolve to "No" if it is confirmed the shooter worked with others. This market will resolve once it is definitively determined whether the shooter was a rogue actor or not.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/fact-check-was-it-a-rogue-actor
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
| Massive-Mud | No | 200 |
| Ray69 | No | 142.86 |
| schnullz | No | 130 |
| maumak | No | 71.43 |
| Floko2107 | No | 40 |
| wangchaol | No | 37.5 |
