Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Mar 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99%. Yes opened at 81.5% on 13 Jan 2026. Before it settled, across the 45 daily closes on record from 13 Jan 2026 to 28 Feb 2026 (2 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 81.5% on 13 Jan 2026 and the lowest 1.1% on 28 Feb 2026. Its largest one-day move was 28 points down, to 53% on 14 Jan 2026. $25.81K traded over the market's life.
30 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Mar 2, 8:25 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 45 points, 13 Jan 2026 – 28 Feb 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 13 Jan 2026 | 81.5% |
| 28 Feb 2026 | 1.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| TENETENET | Yes | 979.95 |
| xianchuilin | Yes | 207.65 |
| seasonrsic | Yes | 200 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
On January 11, 2026, a U-Haul truck drove into a crowd in Los Angeles, during a demonstration in support of Iranian protestors. ABC7 Los Angeles reported that a man was later pulled out of the truck and taken into police custody. This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is confirmed, by either relevant U.S. law enforcement agencies or a consensus of credible reporting, that the alleged driver of the U-Haul Truck that drove into the crowd is a United States citizen by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve once official statements from relevant U.S. law enforcement agencies, or a consensus of credible reporting, have clearly confirmed whether the driver was a U.S. citizen. If the citizenship status of the driver has not been confirmed by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from relevant U.S. law enforcement agencies; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/fact-check-is-la-u-haul-attack-perp-a-us-citizen
| Yes |
| 171.43 |
| 0xRocket666 | Yes | 165 |
| panchengshan | Yes | 159.41 |
| Dmdds1 | Yes | 54.84 |
| 88mnm88 | Yes | 50 |
| t189 | Yes | 50 |
| asfdt22 | Yes | 50 |
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