Fact Check: Flotilla hit by Israeli drone?

Resolved

No, settled Oct 1, 2025 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$90.0K

Resolved

Settled

Oct 1, 2025 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved No on 1 Oct 2025.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.8%. Yes opened at 9% on 10 Sep 2025. Before it settled, across the 22 daily closes on record from 10 Sep 2025 to 1 Oct 2025, the highest close was 40.9% on 23 Sep 2025 and the lowest 0.3% on 1 Oct 2025. Its largest one-day move was 37 points up, to 40.9% on 23 Sep 2025. $89.97K traded over the market's life.

34 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Oct 2, 8:35 AM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 22 points, 10 Sep 2025 – 1 Oct 2025

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
10 Sep 2025	9.0%
1 Oct 2025	0.3%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
zizar3	Yes	16.89K
Tonymontana96	Yes	1.4K
Vau690	Yes	938.22
josephcasa75	Yes	231.25

10 of 34 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

On September 9, there was a fire on one of the ships included in the Global Sumud Flotilla delivering aid to Gaza. For more information, please visit: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cly67g7pdlko. This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is widely and credibly confirmed that the September 9 fire was caused by a drone operated under the authority of the Israeli government/military. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Statements from the Israeli government claiming responsibility for the incident will qualify for a "Yes" resolution. If no broad consensus has been reached by September 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting, with priority given to official statements from relevant investigative agencies.