Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jul 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 98%. Yes opened at 50% on 22 May 2026. Before it settled, across the 41 daily closes on record from 22 May 2026 to 1 Jul 2026, the highest close was 50% on 22 May 2026 and the lowest 2.1% on 1 Jul 2026. Its largest one-day move was 31 points down, to 19% on 23 May 2026. $3.46K traded over the market's life.
22 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jul 2, 8:47 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 41 points, 22 May 2026 – 1 Jul 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 22 May 2026 | 50.0% |
| 1 Jul 2026 | 2.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Camilovargas | Yes | 110.45 |
| TENETENET | Yes | 100 |
| Hopeful-Burnout | Yes | 71.43 |
| Robust-Ignorance | Yes | 63.19 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is confirmed that Evo Morales has left Bolivia for any length of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. In cases where Evo Morales may have exited Bolivian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Bolivia for this market to resolve to “Yes”. If Evo Morales exits Bolivian territory by land into another country, this market may resolve to “Yes”. If Evo Morales exits Bolivian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to “Yes”. If it is not confirmed by the resolution date that Evo Morales left Bolivia, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/evo-morales-leaves-bolivia-by
| Leading-Fruit | Yes | 46.07 |
| Setzer | Yes | 20 |
| Untidy-Robot | Yes | 15.03 |
| triklozoid | Yes | 15 |
| McProducer | Yes | 13.64 |
| niglette | Yes | 12.38 |
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
