Analytics
Resolved No on 18 Jun 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 97.9%. Yes opened at 12.5% on 29 Apr 2026. Before it settled, across the 51 daily closes on record from 29 Apr 2026 to 18 Jun 2026, the highest close was 18.5% on 7 May 2026 and the lowest 0.1% on 19 May 2026. Its largest one-day move was 8.3 points down, to 0.1% on 19 May 2026. $167.29K traded over the market's life.
78 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jun 19, 4:59 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 51 points, 29 Apr 2026 – 18 Jun 2026, chart shows 0%–25%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 29 Apr 2026 | 12.5% |
| 18 Jun 2026 | 2.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Crypto-Well | Yes | 7.55K |
| Unfortunate-Locality | Yes | 2.1K |
| redlioneye | Yes | 1.83K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk is awarded or receives at least $10,000,000,000 USD in the initial trial of Musk v. Altman et al., Case No. 4:24-cv-04722-YGR (U.S. District Court, Northern District of California), by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Qualifying amounts include monetary damages or payments awarded via jury verdict, court judgment, or settlement reached during or prior to the initial trial proceedings. Only cash or cash-equivalent compensation payable to Elon Musk (or entities controlled by him) will be counted. Non-monetary relief will not count. If a mistrial is declared, or if the initial trial concludes without Elon Musk receiving at least $10,000,000,000 USD, this market will resolve to "No". Any retrial, appeal, or subsequent proceedings will not be considered for this market. If Elon Musk is awarded or receives at least $10,000,000,000 USD during the initial trial proceedings, this market will immediately resolve to "Yes". The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/elon-musk-wins-10b-settlement-against-altmanopenai
| Yes |
| 1.3K |
| Baikurr | Yes | 942.26 |
| TradingToRaiseMoneyForLocalLLMServer | Yes | 710.08 |
| akko123 | Yes | 500 |
| polyrocket. | Yes | 500 |
| 56sdfdsfs | Yes | 484.56 |
| jimmy4989trader | Yes | 483 |
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