Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?

Resolved

No, settled May 19, 2026 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$36.7K

Resolved

Settled

May 19, 2026 UTC

Topic roomElon Musk Tweets

Where it stands

Resolved No on 19 May 2026.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 0.1% on 10 May 2026. Before it settled, across the 10 daily closes on record from 10 May 2026 to 19 May 2026, the price held at 0.1%. $36.7K traded over the market's life.

188 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of May 20, 3:08 PM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 10 points, 10 May 2026 – 19 May 2026, chart shows 0%–10%

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
10 May 2026	0.1%
19 May 2026	0.1%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Indigo Signal 2966	No	376.84K
Thailand-Playboy	Yes	35.7K
LeJiShengBei400W	Yes	30K
Elonurmom	Yes	14.68K

10 of 188 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 12 12:00 PM ET to May 19, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.

Resolution source: https://x.com/elonmusk