Analytics
Resolved No on 11 Mar 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 93.7%. Yes opened at 17% on 8 Mar 2026. Before it settled, across the 4 daily closes on record from 8 Mar 2026 to 11 Mar 2026, the highest close was 33.5% on 10 Mar 2026 and the lowest 6.3% on 11 Mar 2026. Its largest one-day move was 27 points down, to 6.3% on 11 Mar 2026.
266 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Mar 12, 6:13 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 4 points, 8 Mar 2026 – 11 Mar 2026, chart shows 0%–40%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 8 Mar 2026 | 17.0% |
| 11 Mar 2026 | 6.3% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 176.68K |
| Ondra | Yes | 14.78K |
| oliiiva | Yes | 5.97K |
| Azure Scout 22F4 | Yes | 5.55K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from March 9 12:00 PM ET to March 11, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Resolution source: https://x.com/elonmusk
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/elon-musk-of-tweets-march-9-march-11
| Unsightly-Pinkie | Yes | 4.76K |
| Well-Off-Impropriety | Yes | 4.57K |
| Petre331 | Yes | 4.48K |
| Amusing-Guinea | Yes | 4K |
| ElonJail | Yes | 3.47K |
| Keen Meteor A448 | Yes | 2.76K |
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