Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026?

Resolved

No, settled Mar 13, 2026 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Resolved

Settled

Mar 13, 2026 UTC

Topic roomElon Musk Tweets

Where it stands

Resolved No on 13 Mar 2026.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 98.7%. Yes opened at 1.5% on 4 Mar 2026. Before it settled, across the 9 daily closes on record from 4 Mar 2026 to 12 Mar 2026, the highest close was 8.6% on 11 Mar 2026 and the lowest 0.8% on 7 Mar 2026. Its largest one-day move was 7.2 points down, to 1.4% on 12 Mar 2026.

213 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Mar 14, 5:59 PM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 9 points, 4 Mar 2026 – 12 Mar 2026, chart shows 0%–15%

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
4 Mar 2026	1.5%
12 Mar 2026	1.4%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Indigo Signal 2966	No	479.18K
sb911	Yes	32.36K
387411007415611814092217897387	Yes	19.38K
ghostfaded	Yes	17.59K

10 of 213 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from March 6 12:00 PM ET to March 13, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.

Resolution source: https://x.com/elonmusk