
Resolved No on 10 Mar 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 54.1%. Yes opened at 10.5% on 1 Mar 2026. Before it settled, across the 10 daily closes on record from 1 Mar 2026 to 10 Mar 2026, the highest close was 45.9% on 10 Mar 2026 and the lowest 3.5% on 5 Mar 2026. Its largest one-day move was 17 points up, to 29.9% on 9 Mar 2026.
452 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Mar 11, 3:43 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 10 points, 1 Mar 2026 – 10 Mar 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 1 Mar 2026 | 10.5% |
| 10 Mar 2026 | 45.9% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 549.4K |
| Siziriv | Yes | 20.45K |
| Fair-Tan | Yes | 16.37K |
| Profitable-Violation | Yes | 13K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from March 3 12:00 PM ET to March 10, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/elon-musk-of-tweets-march-3-march-10
| dushen88 | Yes | 10.19K |
| cry.eth2 | Yes | 9.12K |
| Elonurmom | Yes | 9K |
| Keen Meteor A448 | Yes | 8.27K |
| rated | Yes | 7.68K |
| wokerjoesleeper | Yes | 6.54K |
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