
Resolved No on 25 Mar 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 66.5%. Yes opened at 28% on 22 Mar 2026. Before it settled, across the 4 daily closes on record from 22 Mar 2026 to 25 Mar 2026, the highest close was 37% on 24 Mar 2026 and the lowest 26% on 23 Mar 2026. Its largest one-day move was 11 points up, to 37% on 24 Mar 2026.
180 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Mar 26, 6:53 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 4 points, 22 Mar 2026 – 25 Mar 2026, chart shows 20%–40%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 22 Mar 2026 | 28.0% |
| 25 Mar 2026 | 33.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 174.99K |
| Unsightly-Pinkie | Yes | 14.35K |
| nimikm | Yes | 3.86K |
| Mr-Lucker | Yes | 3.7K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from March 23 12:00 PM ET to March 25, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/elon-musk-of-tweets-march-23-march-25
| Fair-Tan | Yes | 2.43K |
| Lunar Signal 229E | Yes | 1.68K |
| RoadmanDon | Yes | 1.19K |
| Ashamed-Podcast | Yes | 1.12K |
| wangkai1 | Yes | 1K |
| StinkyCobbler | Yes | 955 |
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