Analytics
Resolved No on 21 Mar 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 96.3%. Yes opened at 4.2% on 17 Mar 2026. Before it settled, across the 5 daily closes on record from 17 Mar 2026 to 21 Mar 2026, the highest close was 5.7% on 20 Mar 2026 and the lowest 3.8% on 21 Mar 2026.
125 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Mar 22, 8:16 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 5 points, 17 Mar 2026 – 21 Mar 2026, chart shows 0%–10%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 17 Mar 2026 | 4.2% |
| 21 Mar 2026 | 3.8% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 146.05K |
| Kamenshyk22 | Yes | 4.55K |
| dushen88 | Yes | 3.73K |
| Lunar Signal 229E | Yes | 3.5K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from March 19 12:00 PM ET to March 21, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Resolution source: https://x.com/elonmusk
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/elon-musk-of-tweets-march-19-march-21
| Romeo005 | Yes | 3.05K |
| IO. | Yes | 2.8K |
| Mr-Lucker | Yes | 2.53K |
| gordontradedc | Yes | 2.24K |
| Fair-Tan | Yes | 2.16K |
| ghghgghghghghhghghh888 | Yes | 2.11K |
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