
Resolved No on 14 Mar 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 90.5%. Yes opened at 34% on 10 Mar 2026. Before it settled, across the 5 daily closes on record from 10 Mar 2026 to 14 Mar 2026, the highest close was 34% on 10 Mar 2026 and the lowest 9.5% on 14 Mar 2026. Its largest one-day move was 23 points down, to 9.5% on 14 Mar 2026.
162 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Mar 15, 9:19 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 5 points, 10 Mar 2026 – 14 Mar 2026, chart shows 0%–40%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 10 Mar 2026 | 34.0% |
| 14 Mar 2026 | 9.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 190.34K |
| James.N | Yes | 11.94K |
| wokerjoesleeper | Yes | 10.14K |
| cry.eth2 | Yes | 6.35K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from March 12 12:00 PM ET to March 14, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/elon-musk-of-tweets-march-12-march-14
| Humiliating-Incandescence | Yes | 6.03K |
| Mr-Lucker | Yes | 5.5K |
| Novus0rdoSeclorum | Yes | 5.37K |
| Lunar Pioneer 3338 | Yes | 5K |
| Ondra | Yes | 4.82K |
| OuchMyBalls | Yes | 4K |
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