
Resolved No on 28 Jul 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 15% on 22 Jul 2026. Before it settled, across the 7 daily closes on record from 22 Jul 2026 to 28 Jul 2026, the highest close was 15% on 22 Jul 2026 and the lowest 0.1% on 27 Jul 2026. Its largest one-day move was 8.1 points down, to 1.9% on 25 Jul 2026. $84.8K traded over the market's life.
77 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jul 28, 4:20 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 7 points, 22 Jul 2026 – 28 Jul 2026, chart shows 0%–20%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 22 Jul 2026 | 15.0% |
| 28 Jul 2026 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 178.76K |
| alohaa | Yes | 30K |
| smalltimezzz | Yes | 15.02K |
| coladburco | Yes | 10K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from July 24 12:00 PM ET to July 31, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/elon-musk-of-tweets-july-24-july-31
| ElonJail | Yes | 7.02K |
| RickRockRick | Yes | 4K |
| Elonurmom | Yes | 3.91K |
| gordontradedc | Yes | 3.38K |
| Bitgod | Yes | 3.32K |
| Elastin | Yes | 2.64K |
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