
Resolved No on 13 Jul 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.8%. Yes opened at 5.5% on 10 Jul 2026. Before it settled, across the 4 daily closes on record from 10 Jul 2026 to 13 Jul 2026, the highest close was 10.5% on 11 Jul 2026 and the lowest 0.3% on 13 Jul 2026. Its largest one-day move was 7.3 points down, to 3.1% on 12 Jul 2026. $72.8K traded over the market's life.
57 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jul 14, 2:52 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 4 points, 10 Jul 2026 – 13 Jul 2026, chart shows 0%–15%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 10 Jul 2026 | 5.5% |
| 13 Jul 2026 | 0.3% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 32.32K |
| Agitated-Ton | Yes | 4.89K |
| Golden Kestrel 1950 | Yes | 3.72K |
| smalltimezzz | Yes | 3.35K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from July 11 12:00 PM ET to July 13, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/elon-musk-of-tweets-july-11-july-13
| Keen Atlas 7F72 | Yes | 1.55K |
| balthazar | Yes | 1.38K |
| labistiiia | Yes | 1K |
| Mr-Ferrari | Yes | 1K |
| Iamfine109 | Yes | 1K |
| RickRockRick | Yes | 991.85 |
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