
Resolved No on 9 Feb 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 82.5%. Yes opened at 33.5% on 6 Feb 2026. Before it settled, across the 4 daily closes on record from 6 Feb 2026 to 9 Feb 2026, the highest close was 35.5% on 7 Feb 2026 and the lowest 17.5% on 9 Feb 2026. Its largest one-day move was 17 points down, to 18.5% on 8 Feb 2026. $1M traded over the market's life.
221 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Feb 10, 4:23 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 4 points, 6 Feb 2026 – 9 Feb 2026, chart shows 10%–40%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 6 Feb 2026 | 33.5% |
| 9 Feb 2026 | 17.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Gamble8 | Yes | 417.54K |
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 209.58K |
| Fair-Tan | Yes | 11.47K |
| O.G.Degen | Yes | 5.54K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from February 7 12:00 PM ET to February 9, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/elon-musk-of-tweets-february-7-february-9
| shamrising | Yes | 3.11K |
| Lumi5 | Yes | 3.04K |
| Novus0rdoSeclorum | Yes | 2.93K |
| Ondra | Yes | 2.39K |
| wokerjoesleeper | Yes | 2.26K |
| Anon321321 | Yes | 1.76K |
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