
Resolved No on 21 Dec 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.9%. Yes opened at 13.8% on 25 Oct 2025. Before it settled, across the 59 daily closes on record from 25 Oct 2025 to 21 Dec 2025, the highest close was 16.2% on 5 Nov 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 19 Dec 2025. Its largest one-day move was 12 points up, to 16.2% on 5 Nov 2025. $86.7K traded over the market's life.
64 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 12, 4:01 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 59 points, 25 Oct 2025 – 21 Dec 2025, chart shows 0%–20%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 25 Oct 2025 | 13.8% |
| 21 Dec 2025 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 35.12K |
| rated | Yes | 3.18K |
| LoraK | Yes | 1.73K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X during the month of December 2025. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://www.xtracker.io/. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/elon-musk-of-tweets-december-2025
| Yes |
| 1.32K |
| Karolf | Yes | 1K |
| zonh | Yes | 1K |
| ivan333 | Yes | 963.37 |
| Upbeat-Shin | Yes | 936.37 |
| yuyang | Yes | 745.71 |
| wokerjoesleeper | Yes | 650.86 |
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