
Resolved No on 8 Dec 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 97%. Yes opened at 4.8% on 30 Nov 2025. Before it settled, across the 9 daily closes on record from 30 Nov 2025 to 8 Dec 2025, the highest close was 11.8% on 6 Dec 2025 and the lowest 2% on 2 Dec 2025. Its largest one-day move was 6.6 points up, to 11.8% on 6 Dec 2025. $938.1K traded over the market's life.
212 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Dec 9, 4:28 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 9 points, 30 Nov 2025 – 8 Dec 2025, chart shows 0%–15%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 30 Nov 2025 | 4.8% |
| 8 Dec 2025 | 3.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 656.97K |
| OuchMyBalls | Yes | 25.3K |
| ammar-2349 | Yes | 19.39K |
| Novus0rdoSeclorum | Yes | 15.1K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from December 2 12:00 PM ET to December 9, 2025 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/elon-musk-of-tweets-december-2-december-9
| Siziriv | Yes | 13.06K |
| wokerjoesleeper | Yes | 6.58K |
| OBigBallsO | Yes | 5.4K |
| flow-trader-at-optiver | Yes | 5.12K |
| MrLucker | Yes | 4K |
| yeetttdodddd | Yes | 3.86K |
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