Analytics
Resolved No on 15 Apr 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 98%. Yes opened at 11.5% on 9 Apr 2026. Before it settled, across the 5 daily closes on record from 9 Apr 2026 to 15 Apr 2026 (2 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 16.5% on 11 Apr 2026 and the lowest 0.7% on 13 Apr 2026. Its largest one-day move was 5 points up, to 16.5% on 11 Apr 2026. $540.8K traded over the market's life.
199 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Apr 16, 5:03 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 5 points, 9 Apr 2026 – 15 Apr 2026, chart shows 0%–20%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 9 Apr 2026 | 11.5% |
| 15 Apr 2026 | 2.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 387.01K |
| alohaa | Yes | 32K |
| Medical-Universe | Yes | 14K |
| Neon Harbor 1267 | Yes | 13.97K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from April 10 12:00 PM ET to April 17, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Resolution source: https://x.com/elonmusk
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/elon-musk-of-tweets-april-10-april-17
| Keen Lynx 0B73 | Yes | 12.32K |
| Alert-Barge | Yes | 8.47K |
| Elonurmom | Yes | 6.94K |
| animal.bean | Yes | 6.17K |
| Fighter-Mcgee | Yes | 4.75K |
| hidden-james | Yes | 4.5K |
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