Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jan 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.9%. Yes opened at 4.3% on 26 Oct 2024. Before it settled, the high was 6.9% on 5 Nov 2024 and the low 0.1% on 1 Jan 2025. $552.71K traded over the market's life.
124 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 2, 7:37 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 68 points, 26 Oct 2024 – 1 Jan 2025, chart shows 0%–10%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 26 Oct 2024 | 4.3% |
| 1 Jan 2025 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| ohnounicornbabies | Yes | 10.66K |
| Nickz | Yes | 7.86K |
| Tremendous-Saving | Yes | 3.33K |
| qishiss | Yes | 1K |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk is arrested between October 24 and December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. However, official information from the government involved in any action against Elon Musk and information from Musk's legal representatives will also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/elon-musk-arrested-in-2024
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
| tuich | Yes | 999.2 |
| piaaof | Yes | 999.12 |
| Proregdegen | Yes | 855.63 |
| MathieuFisch | Yes | 447.04 |
| mspro | Yes | 430.59 |
| Drewniany | Yes | 294.12 |
