Analytics
Resolved Yes on 3 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 74%. Yes opened at 33% on 30 Dec 2025. Before it settled, across the 5 daily closes on record from 30 Dec 2025 to 3 Jan 2026, the highest close was 74% on 3 Jan 2026 and the lowest 33% on 30 Dec 2025. Its largest one-day move was 31 points up, to 74% on 3 Jan 2026. $132.74K traded over the market's life.
77 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 4, 4:29 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 5 points, 30 Dec 2025 – 3 Jan 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 30 Dec 2025 | 33.0% |
| 3 Jan 2026 | 74.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 27.7K |
| Evergreen-Bicycle | No | 2.24K |
| dfgg234 | No | 1.26K |
| jimkta | No | 1K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from January 1 12:00 PM ET to January 3, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Resolution source: https://x.com/elonmusk
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/elon-musk-of-tweets-january-1-january-3
| Hollow-Treasury | No | 910.95 |
| Squiggly-Convertible | No | 861.33 |
| tyhdg | No | 586.11 |
| dongqiang1 | No | 554.9 |
| dgtt | No | 504.87 |
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | No | 503 |
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