Analytics
Yes is at 6%, down 16 points from 22% when the market opened on 26 May 2026.
Across the 155 daily closes on record from 26 May 2026 to 28 Oct 2026 (1 day in that span have no close), the highest close was 22% on 26 May 2026 and the lowest 4.5% on 28 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 5.5%; a month before, 5.5%. Its largest one-day move was 11 points down, to 11% on 27 May 2026.
$6.82K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $11.37K, with a 4.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 89 trades, $134.87 bought Yes and $2.5K bought No; the largest was a $1.98K buy of No at 90.0¢.
The largest Yes position is Oklmntrader with 1K shares; the largest No position is thoodr with 1.9K. Ten wallets hold 95.5% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 65 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 28, 10:40 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 155 points, 26 May 2026 – 28 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–30%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 26 May 2026 | 22.0% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 6.0% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| thoodr | No | 1.87K |
| Oklmntrader | Yes | 1K |
| Detailed-Tangerine | Yes | 299.71 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ekrem İmamoğlu is released from custody between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Ekrem İmamoğlu is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes". If Ekrem İmamoğlu is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in him leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes". Transporting Ekrem İmamoğlu to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes". Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/ekrem-imamolu-released-from-custody-in-2026
| Dr.PNL |
| Yes |
| 194.75 |
| Numitus1994 | Yes | 101.01 |
| Jade Beacon E3EA | Yes | 56.21 |
| Tender-Year | Yes | 51 |
| Anon234 | Yes | 50 |
| farmLiquidity | Yes | 25 |
| RealityChaser | No | 22.47 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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