Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.9%. Yes opened at 33.5% on 21 Aug 2025. Before it settled, across the 135 daily closes on record from 21 Aug 2025 to 1 Jan 2026, the highest close was 42.5% on 4 Sep 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 17 Dec 2025. Its largest one-day move was 19 points down, to 19.5% on 27 Aug 2025. $326.75K traded over the market's life.
102 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 2, 8:31 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 135 points, 21 Aug 2025 – 1 Jan 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 21 Aug 2025 | 33.5% |
| 1 Jan 2026 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| satoshiAncap | Yes | 50K |
| Haaa11 | Yes | 2.99K |
| k0606k | Yes | 2.76K |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank's deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between August 20 and December 31, 2025 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may not resolve to "No" until December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET has passed. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/ecb-rate-cut-in-2025
| Yes |
| 820 |
| Keen Raven 2FD9 | Yes | 680 |
| Required-Barracks | Yes | 500 |
| technobuddha | Yes | 425.84 |
| JFkoRlrkMM | Yes | 411 |
| SENIORDELASFINANZAS | Yes | 397.72 |
| Gaby21 | Yes | 355 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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