Earthquake 7.0 or above by August 31?

Resolved

Yes, settled Aug 23, 2025 UTC

Yes

100.0%

0.0%

Final Yes 100¢Final No 0¢

Lifetime volume

$309.8K

Resolved

Yes

Settled

Aug 23, 2025 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved Yes on 23 Aug 2025.

The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 99.8%. Yes opened at 73.5% on 1 Aug 2025. Before it settled, across the 23 daily closes on record from 1 Aug 2025 to 23 Aug 2025, the highest close was 99.8% on 23 Aug 2025 and the lowest 31.5% on 21 Aug 2025. Its largest one-day move was 68 points up, to 99.8% on 23 Aug 2025. $309.78K traded over the market's life.

188 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Aug 24, 8:42 AM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 23 points, 1 Aug 2025 – 23 Aug 2025

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
1 Aug 2025	73.5%
23 Aug 2025	99.8%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
cowcat	No	4.48K
iozt	No	4.15K
singularityman	No	3.38K
AlexZhao	No	3.27K

10 of 188 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between July 31 and August 31, 2025 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until September 7, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.