Analytics
Resolved Yes on 20 Jul 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 77.5%. Yes opened at 77% on 18 Jul 2025. Before it settled, the high was 77.5% on 20 Jul 2025 and the low 77% on 18 Jul 2025. $39.66K traded over the market's life.
29 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jul 21, 4:44 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 3 points · 18 Jul 2025 – 20 Jul 2025 · axis zoomed to 72%–84%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 18 Jul 2025 | 77.0% |
| 20 Jul 2025 | 77.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| SergeyLapa | No | 1.03K |
| Banito26 | No | 500 |
| nazeli | No | 181.82 |
| GIMP | No | 136.17 |
| Kaalam93 | No | 132.07 |
| DRD783 | No | 112.11 |
| PiotrMARW2025 | No | 100 |
| Cass9595 | No | 83.33 |
| ghostrider69 | No | 65.22 |
| calbu | No | 50 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher occur anywhere on earth between July 16, 9:00 PM, and August 31, 2025 ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake hazards program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until September 7, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used. Resolver
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/earthquake-7pt0-or-above-by-august-31
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