Analytics
Resolved No on 18 Dec 2024.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 8% on 9 Aug 2024. Before it settled, across the 132 daily closes on record from 9 Aug 2024 to 18 Dec 2024, the highest close was 8% on 9 Aug 2024 and the lowest 0.1% on 7 Nov 2024. $2.41M traded over the market's life.
224 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 20, 5:09 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 132 points, 9 Aug 2024 – 18 Dec 2024, chart shows 0%–10%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 9 Aug 2024 | 8.0% |
| 18 Dec 2024 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 2.07M |
| rayku | Yes | 274.08K |
| Nickname99 | Yes | 110.26K |
This market will resolve to "Yes” if the Democratic Party wins the popular vote in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election by between 6% (inclusive) and 7% (exclusive) when compared with the second place party. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of resolving this market, the 'margin of victory' is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of votes received by the Democratic Party and the second-place party. Percentages of the votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of votes each of the two parties receives by the sum of all votes cast in the election. This market will resolve based off the official vote count once all U.S. States and the District of Columbia have certified their votes.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/popular-vote-margin-of-victory-in-presidential-election
| Yes |
| 83.54K |
| StarVoting | Yes | 62.91K |
| Smartypants | Yes | 51.06K |
| Garcia1984 | Yes | 34.1K |
| Miq834 | Yes | 25.57K |
| 4rt56 | Yes | 22.61K |
| Thin-Precedent | Yes | 22.19K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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