Democrats win popular vote by 3-4%?

Name: Democrats win popular vote by 3-4%? — implied probability history
License: https://vultax.com/legal/terms

politicsResolved

No, settled Dec 18, 2024 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$2.3M

Resolved

Settled

Dec 18, 2024 UTC

Positions left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares	Avg entry	Cost basis	Last trade
Indigo Signal 2966	No	2.07M	0.0%	$0
StarVoting	Yes	174.94K	12.5%	$21.83K
ThePhantomMenace	Yes	70K	10.4%	$7.29K
CaseScaglione	Yes	58.69K	2.1%	$1.25K
rayku	Yes	45.76K	10.1%	$4.61K
WindWalk3	Yes	21.27K	9.5%	$2.03K
DEMONCRAT	Yes	19.08K	11.1%	$2.12K
avalonman	Yes	18.75K	8.0%	$1.5K
Magean0	Yes	14.41K	10.3%	$1.49K
4rt56	Yes	10.02K	5.5%	$553.64
0x555151515	Yes	9.25K	11.9%	$1.1K
adialachar	Yes	9.15K	10.9%	$999.99
thser	Yes	7.57K	11.0%	$832.92
rewt	Yes	6.94K	7.0%	$485.93
undertaker	Yes	6.66K	4.6%	$305.23
randomguy123	Yes	6.59K	12.5%	$826.13
sfdour	Yes	6.58K	7.0%	$460.32
grased	Yes	6.38K	11.0%	$701.58
4950	Yes	6.25K	8.0%	$500
trekv	Yes	6.18K	11.0%	$680.13
sdchoo	Yes	6.05K	11.0%	$665.28
rumtumtugger	Yes	5.6K	8.0%	$448
jkgb	Yes	5.31K	11.0%	$583.66
Observer	Yes	5.25K	15.4%	$806.89
TechFocused	Yes	5.22K	9.6%	$500
ghsou	Yes	4.65K	11.0%	$511.61
wolfgang551	Yes	4.26K	2.7%	$115
MarsLife	Yes	4.01K	11.6%	$464.54
Jumanji1988	Yes	3.84K	13.0%	$499.56
vasilyevna	Yes	3.56K	0.1%	$3.56
ASB777	Yes	3.54K	9.0%	$319.97
hokatak	Yes	3.47K	0.1%	$3.47
Siziriv	Yes	3.01K	3.1%	$93.96
Baalsham	Yes	3K	11.7%	$349.97
tack87	Yes	2.99K	12.0%	$359.04
Musi88	Yes	2.93K	13.0%	$380.42
packersfan	Yes	2.78K	9.0%	$250
Anon327	Yes	2.74K	15.0%	$411.46
icu072912	Yes	2.71K	12.0%	$324.88
stanimir	Yes	2.14K	0.1%	$2.14
hardycharlie	Yes	2.04K	12.5%	$255
DJeremy	Yes	1.9K	0.1%	$1.9
thor20002	Yes	1.77K	10.6%	$186.99
aurIcstEaLTh	Yes	1.74K	0.1%	$1.74
kingfisher	Yes	1.7K	6.0%	$102.25
test456743	Yes	1.66K	12.0%	$199
effmullif	Yes	1.65K	15.6%	$257
rat7	Yes	1.5K	16.0%	$240.05
Outsided	Yes	1.5K	12.9%	$192.99
MAXXBowers	Yes	1.48K	11.9%	$175
Fakaleidosthar	Yes	1.45K	0.1%	$1.45
clariwe	Yes	1.43K	0.1%	$1.43
ballistercruel	Yes	1.39K	10.8%	$150
Boeufman420	Yes	1.24K	12.8%	$160
Axel410	Yes	1.22K	9.8%	$120
brix	Yes	1.18K	0.1%	$1.18
Notadegen333	Yes	1.15K	13.0%	$150
tanwen	Yes	1.14K	0.1%	$1.14
parcimony7644	Yes	1.11K	10.0%	$111.1
Icy-Statistics	Yes	1.09K	9.1%	$100
guyfrost	Yes	1.09K	13.2%	$143.7
cnsl78	Yes	1.05K	11.0%	$115.61
androma	Yes	1.03K	0.1%	$1.03	Dec 9, 9:19 PM UTC
HeinzTomatoKetchup	Yes	1K	13.1%	$131
jonthecloser	Yes	975.56	10.3%	$100
Wcrossman5	Yes	907.36	14.0%	$127.03
vesilin	Yes	870	0.1%	$0.87	Dec 8, 1:57 PM UTC
Alec187	Yes	833.33	12.0%	$100
M0ike	Yes	833.33	9.0%	$75
kouwei-vibes	Yes	818.18	11.0%	$90
Jdawesome10	Yes	769.23	13.0%	$100
Recklessness	Yes	757.14	13.2%	$100
Dietcoke	Yes	750	8.0%	$60
Alngrd	Yes	731.09	11.0%	$80.42
DoSi	Yes	721.21	12.5%	$90
pingouin	Yes	688.25	8.0%	$55.06
WillKsky	Yes	646.15	13.8%	$89
Cheron	Yes	625	8.0%	$50
m4828300	Yes	625	8.0%	$50
DesertRatboy	Yes	625	12.0%	$75
Renegade24	Yes	625	12.0%	$75
Cobalt Horizon A2B1	Yes	615.38	13.0%	$80
Truduluc	Yes	560	9.0%	$50.4
Masterchief	Yes	555.56	9.0%	$50
punsach	Yes	555.56	18.0%	$100
RaeroF	Yes	553.26	17.9%	$99
Amore88	Yes	545.45	11.0%	$60
HumanPerson	Yes	534.6	10.0%	$53.25
toucan	Yes	533.33	13.1%	$70
jve0i	Yes	500	18.0%	$90
Reader_of_Vunjan	Yes	500	8.0%	$40
halav	Yes	500	8.0%	$40
dapocalypse	Yes	481.41	7.7%	$37
ElectionRizzard	Yes	416.67	12.0%	$50
XMikhailX	Yes	415.95	9.4%	$39.07
sanbeyati	Yes	413.73	12.1%	$50
0x4...b482	Yes	384.62	13.0%	$50
Ree123	Yes	384.62	13.0%	$50
boo3245	Yes	384.62	13.0%	$50
Jerexotic	Yes	370.53	14.8%	$55
yooore	Yes	350	8.0%	$28
chelovek	Yes	340	0.1%	$0.34
DaveNC55	Yes	333.33	12.0%	$40
CruisingOwl	Yes	318.18	11.0%	$35
CypherWind207	No	300	93.0%	$279
bettingstein	Yes	300	11.0%	$33
mmcgathy	Yes	290	0.1%	$0.29
bigdogg	Yes	285.71	14.0%	$40
JayEole	Yes	272.73	11.0%	$30
nekrass	Yes	270	0.1%	$0.27	Dec 12, 3:56 PM UTC
eileneudell	Yes	250	0.1%	$0.25	Dec 11, 7:38 PM UTC
lizakravec	Yes	250	0.1%	$0.25	Dec 12, 4:00 PM UTC
amelnik	Yes	220	0.1%	$0.22	Dec 12, 3:27 PM UTC
Violet Sphinx 42B4	Yes	196	0.1%	$0.2	Dec 8, 4:39 PM UTC
Meyden	Yes	180	17.0%	$30.6
HurricaneMolly	Yes	178.57	14.0%	$25
Bamble	Yes	162.5	8.0%	$13
SaturnKike	Yes	142.11	17.6%	$25
Royal Kestrel 4974	Yes	140	0.1%	$0.14	Dec 8, 4:05 PM UTC
ThomIsGone	Yes	134.09	11.9%	$16
Kevin123	Yes	125	8.0%	$10
CryLater	Yes	125	8.0%	$10
Nannes	Yes	118.38	13.0%	$15.39
Malcrux	Yes	111.11	18.0%	$20
bringitalone	Yes	110	10.2%	$11.2
Ivory Oracle 0CCD	Yes	106	0.1%	$0.11	Dec 8, 4:26 PM UTC
Swar101	Yes	105.26	19.0%	$20
Delayed-Carp	Yes	100.01	12.0%	$12
Omniscient	Yes	100	8.0%	$8
Pardner	Yes	100	14.0%	$14
randomisiert	Yes	100	13.0%	$13
Jyoti17	Yes	100	0.1%	$0.1
Jaqk	Yes	100	11.0%	$11
Solar Horizon 8548	Yes	90.91	11.0%	$10
Honored-Justice	Yes	90.91	11.0%	$10
twinsis	Yes	90.91	11.0%	$10
Experienced-Domain	Yes	83.33	12.0%	$10
HenryETH	Yes	83.33	12.0%	$10
thejoker69	Yes	83.33	12.0%	$10
Folkert	Yes	83.31	13.0%	$10.83
gryph	Yes	81.45	11.0%	$8.96
Tjn	Yes	80	13.0%	$10.4
nnngme	Yes	80	0.1%	$0.08
LeotheBird	Yes	76.92	13.0%	$10
Zmeta	Yes	76.92	13.0%	$10
Laddie102Meta	Yes	76.92	13.0%	$10
Smokeyman	Yes	71.64	11.0%	$7.88
Bold Vector F470	Yes	64	0.1%	$0.06	Dec 8, 5:32 PM UTC
Aldous	Yes	62.5	8.0%	$5
Dcampbell	Yes	62.5	8.0%	$5
Chin777	Yes	62.5	8.0%	$5
whitefishsalad1	Yes	62.5	8.0%	$5
JacETMS	Yes	58.82	17.0%	$10
chimgo	Yes	58.82	17.0%	$10
PhenomZ	Yes	50	16.0%	$8
St-Qc	Yes	50	9.0%	$4.5
squarewave-180	Yes	50	8.0%	$4
Eskimo1400	Yes	50	9.0%	$4.5
Silver Comet 79F8	Yes	50	8.0%	$4
xdfvsg	Yes	50	0.1%	$0.05
RiverboatElliot	Yes	42.5	11.8%	$5
peanutsquirrel	Yes	41.67	12.0%	$5
ggtttr	Yes	40	0.1%	$0.04
ddttty	Yes	40	0.1%	$0.04
aawww	Yes	40	0.1%	$0.04
Veteer	Yes	40	0.1%	$0.04
Durin	Yes	39.23	12.7%	$5
cuno	Yes	36.92	3.1%	$1.15
Casey555	Yes	35.71	14.0%	$5
Decent-Carol	Yes	35.33	9.0%	$3.18
candtheirco	Yes	33.33	15.0%	$5
jbet	Yes	33.33	12.0%	$4
Fatboy	Yes	31.25	16.0%	$5
huangkdoi	Yes	30	0.1%	$0.03
Turtleku	Yes	24.44	13.0%	$3.18
pol444	Yes	20	0.1%	$0.02
pol666	Yes	20	0.1%	$0.02
adrianay	Yes	20	0.1%	$0.02
0x3am	Yes	20	0.1%	$0.02
bridgety	Yes	20	0.1%	$0.02
pol5	Yes	20	0.1%	$0.02
hhtty	Yes	20	0.1%	$0.02	Dec 11, 2:14 PM UTC
xccsww	Yes	20	0.1%	$0.02	Dec 11, 2:14 PM UTC
yeskdofff	Yes	20	0.1%	$0.02
00000000011111111	Yes	20	0.1%	$0.02
pol333	Yes	20	0.1%	$0.02
nbnjjg	Yes	20	0.1%	$0.02	Dec 11, 2:14 PM UTC
clumps	Yes	20	11.0%	$2.2
loookkdffe	Yes	20	0.1%	$0.02	Dec 10, 3:40 AM UTC
yyrtr	Yes	20	0.1%	$0.02	Dec 11, 2:14 PM UTC
DoctorFantastic	Yes	20	13.0%	$2.6
33333300000000	Yes	20	0.1%	$0.02
00004444	Yes	20	0.1%	$0.02
eeert	Yes	20	0.1%	$0.02	Dec 11, 2:14 PM UTC
pol222	Yes	20	0.1%	$0.02
dx82i	Yes	18.18	11.0%	$2
Andy9373836	Yes	15.38	13.0%	$2
Adr1an	Yes	12.5	8.0%	$1
EricTheGreen	Yes	11.11	18.0%	$2
sdgsgg	Yes	10	0.1%	$0.01
xfgdrr	Yes	10	0.1%	$0.01
bbbjj	Yes	10	0.1%	$0.01
xxxee	Yes	10	0.1%	$0.01
dgsdgg	Yes	10	0.1%	$0.01
dfghdfd	Yes	10	0.1%	$0.01
gguui	Yes	10	0.1%	$0.01
ynumt	Yes	10	0.1%	$0.01
aswwws	Yes	10	0.1%	$0.01
yumujy	Yes	10	0.1%	$0.01
wwsdr	Yes	10	0.1%	$0.01
zxcvsd	Yes	10	0.1%	$0.01
GHIGI	Yes	10	0.1%	$0.01
zxcasdf	Yes	10	0.1%	$0.01
dfgsgf	Yes	10	0.1%	$0.01
kkkpp	Yes	10	0.1%	$0.01
hhjfgf	Yes	10	0.1%	$0.01
fgbnfgn	Yes	10	0.1%	$0.01
zxcvdh	Yes	10	0.1%	$0.01
dfgbxc	Yes	10	0.1%	$0.01
sssee	Yes	10	0.1%	$0.01
ddgggt	Yes	10	0.1%	$0.01
yyhhu	Yes	10	0.1%	$0.01
vvvff	Yes	10	0.1%	$0.01
fgbfgn	Yes	10	0.1%	$0.01
sseer	Yes	10	0.1%	$0.01
ffasvx	Yes	10	0.1%	$0.01
zzzww	Yes	10	0.1%	$0.01
cvbcgh	Yes	10	0.1%	$0.01
ggddee	Yes	10	0.1%	$0.01
changer	Yes	10	0.1%	$0.01
pol777	Yes	10	0.1%	$0.01
pol888	Yes	10	0.1%	$0.01
xcvgsdf	Yes	10	0.1%	$0.01
ggddei	Yes	10	0.1%	$0.01
thngn	Yes	10	0.1%	$0.01
ggrtty	Yes	10	0.1%	$0.01
dgasda	Yes	10	0.1%	$0.01
pol111	Yes	10	0.1%	$0.01
nghnt	Yes	10	0.1%	$0.01
hhhrr	Yes	10	0.1%	$0.01
fghdfdf	Yes	10	0.1%	$0.01
cvsaved	Yes	10	0.1%	$0.01
hhttyt	Yes	10	0.1%	$0.01
gchjnf	Yes	10	0.1%	$0.01
aaaade	Yes	10	0.1%	$0.01
fgbnghm	Yes	10	0.1%	$0.01
0500KJIOHJ	Yes	10	0.1%	$0.01
cvbcghv	Yes	10	0.1%	$0.01
cgbfgf	Yes	10	0.1%	$0.01
sdfvsdgf	Yes	10	0.1%	$0.01
ggguu	Yes	10	0.1%	$0.01
fgnfyg	Yes	10	0.1%	$0.01
sfffgrr	Yes	10	0.1%	$0.01
Wobbly-Nonsense	Yes	9.09	11.0%	$1
NaNiBy	Yes	9.09	11.0%	$1
Celebrated-Haze	Yes	8.46	13.0%	$1.1
Afi2000	Yes	8.33	12.0%	$1
coffana	Yes	8.33	12.0%	$1
DaisyChain	Yes	8.33	12.0%	$1
MasterCM	Yes	7.69	13.0%	$1
goodloser	Yes	7.69	13.0%	$1
Peaceful-Marines	Yes	6.25	16.0%	$1
livermorego	Yes	5	0.1%	$0.01
phroge	Yes	2.78	3.1%	$0.09
1N3L	Yes	1.85	13.0%	$0.24
il3vtherage	Yes	1.36	11.0%	$0.15
goat33	Yes	1.25	8.0%	$0.1
4556	Yes	1.25	8.0%	$0.1
2ymark	Yes	1.25	8.0%	$0.1
herat2	Yes	1.11	9.0%	$0.1
realisrale	Yes	1.11	9.0%	$0.1
Emerald Beacon F675	Yes	1	5.7%	$0.06
feyen	Yes	1	14.0%	$0.14
PDMcN	Yes	0.46	13.0%	$0.06
WyomingJoe123	Yes	0.33	12.0%	$0.04
Threadbare-Obsidian	No	0.25	93.0%	$0.23
Quiet Summit F29E	Yes	0.2	50.0%	$0.1
sosga	No	0.13	84.0%	$0.11
thxhghx	Yes	0.13	8.0%	$0.01
chuzu	Yes	0.13	8.0%	$0.01
OYIOUITO	Yes	0.11	9.0%	$0.01

281 of 281 positions.

Holders by valueThe same holders, ranked by what their position is worth now.

Trader	Holding value
Indigo Signal 2966	$2.07M
CypherWind207	$300
Threadbare-Obsidian	$0.25

Analytics