Analytics
“Democrats win popular vote by 3-4%?” is a politics prediction market on Polymarket with two tradeable outcomes, Yes and No. It belongs to the event “Popular Vote Margin of Victory?”. The Yes price is the market's implied probability that the question resolves Yes. Quotes can change as orders are updated or filled; a quoted price does not guarantee an available fill at that price.
The venue reports this market as closed. Its scheduled close is Jan 31, 2025 UTC. No resolved outcome is inferred from a closed or suspended state.
Vultax observes this market from Polymarket's public order book and data API and keeps its own record: 132 hourly price points from Aug 9, 2024 UTC to Dec 18, 2024 UTC (Yes between 0.1% and 49.5%); 273 loaded holder wallets, the largest ten holding 92.1% of the loaded shares; 500 recent public fills from 497 wallets. Each figure carries its observation time; nothing here is a return forecast.
Public Polymarket market/event context is available; Vultax source-pack coverage is tracked separately.
This resolved market has no live orderbook depth; the public close quote is shown for context.
Nine stops, one per figure on this page. Each stop says what the number is, why it matters, and what it reads right now for this market.
Each outcome trades as a share that pays $1 if it wins and nothing if it loses. Prices are quoted in cents, and Yes plus No add up to about one dollar.
This market will resolve to "Yes” if the Democratic Party wins the popular vote in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election by between 3% (inclusive) and 4% (exclusive) when compared with the second place party. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of resolving this market, the 'margin of victory' is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of votes received by the Democratic Party and the second-place party. Percentages of the votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of votes each of the two parties receives by the sum of all votes cast in the election. This market will resolve based off the official vote count once all U.S. States and the District of Columbia have certified their votes.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/popular-vote-margin-of-victory-in-presidential-election
The Yes price read as a chance. A share at 21.5¢ implies 21.5%, but fees, available depth and who participates can affect that price. A market price is not a calibrated forecast or a verdict.
Dollar value of shares that changed hands in the last 24 hours. High volume means the price is being tested by real money; low volume means a few trades can move it.
Reported dollars resting in the order book. The available size on your side, at the prices you would accept, determines what can fill. A large total alone does not guarantee an execution near the quoted price.
The gap between the best bid and the best ask. A tight spread makes entry and exit cheap; a wide spread is a cost paid on every round trip.
The wallets holding the most shares on each side, and how much of the loaded sample the largest ten control. Concentration shows whether a market is a crowd or a handful of large positions.
The public fills, newest first: which wallet bought or sold which outcome, at what price, and when. It is the market's own diary, and every wallet on it links to a trader profile.
Hourly closes of the Yes price. The range shows how sure or split the crowd has been; the move shows which way it has been changing its mind.
Trading stops at the close time. The outcome is then settled by the resolution source named in the rules. A closed market is not resolved until the venue reports it, so the two states are shown separately.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 2.07M |
| StarVoting | Yes | 174.94K |
| ThePhantomMenace | Yes | 70K |
| CaseScaglione | Yes | 58.69K |
| rayku | Yes | 45.76K |
| WindWalk3 | Yes | 21.27K |
| DEMONCRAT | Yes | 19.08K |
| avalonman | Yes | 18.75K |
| Magean0 | Yes | 14.41K |
| 4rt56 | Yes | 10.02K |