Democrats win popular vote by 2-3%?

Name: Democrats win popular vote by 2-3%? — implied probability history
License: https://vultax.com/legal/terms

politicsResolved

No, settled Dec 18, 2024 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$7.6M

Resolved

Settled

Dec 18, 2024 UTC

Positions left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares	Avg entry	Cost basis	Last trade
Indigo Signal 2966	No	2.07M	0.0%	$0
CaseScaglione	Yes	86.22K	1.7%	$1.45K
captainrabbit	Yes	67.85K	11.0%	$7.46K
ThePhantomMenace	Yes	55.45K	13.7%	$7.61K
OrderbookDestroyr9000	Yes	28.48K	6.1%	$1.73K
dotaa555	Yes	24.67K	13.6%	$3.35K
WindWalk3	Yes	23.59K	11.4%	$2.69K
Magean0	Yes	20.93K	11.8%	$2.48K
DEMONCRAT	Yes	19.33K	12.0%	$2.32K
4rt56	Yes	16.98K	2.3%	$395.55
StarVoting	Yes	16.31K	16.0%	$2.61K
avalonman	Yes	12.91K	11.6%	$1.5K
Wend2	Yes	9K	0.1%	$9
hardycharlie	Yes	8.4K	12.0%	$1.01K
0x555151515	Yes	8.35K	13.2%	$1.1K
randomguy123	Yes	8.34K	13.9%	$1.16K
thser	Yes	7.57K	12.0%	$908.64
adialachar	Yes	7.14K	14.0%	$999.99
rewt	Yes	6.94K	9.0%	$624.78
undertaker	Yes	6.66K	14.1%	$941.49
sfdour	Yes	6.58K	10.0%	$657.6
grased	Yes	6.38K	12.0%	$765.36
trekv	Yes	6.18K	13.0%	$803.79
MarsLife	Yes	6.06K	12.1%	$734.98
sdchoo	Yes	6.05K	12.0%	$725.76
jkgb	Yes	5.31K	12.0%	$636.72
EnderN	Yes	5.15K	13.1%	$676.75
Observer	Yes	5.05K	17.4%	$881.37
jenkem	Yes	5K	0.1%	$5
rumtumtugger	Yes	4.86K	11.1%	$540.52
ghsou	Yes	4.65K	12.0%	$558.12
4950	Yes	4.55K	11.0%	$500
wolfgang551	Yes	4.34K	4.3%	$188.06
guyfrost	Yes	4.24K	13.2%	$559.24
rat7	Yes	4.06K	17.1%	$693.72
Siziriv	Yes	3.01K	3.1%	$93.96	Dec 12, 7:40 AM UTC
Baalsham	Yes	3K	12.7%	$380
tack87	Yes	2.99K	13.0%	$388.96
thor20002	Yes	2.84K	14.0%	$397.5
VASIL	Yes	2.16K	13.9%	$299.93
m4828300	Yes	2.12K	14.1%	$300
hokatak	Yes	1.97K	0.1%	$1.97
Amore88	Yes	1.96K	13.4%	$263.83
Outsided	Yes	1.6K	12.7%	$203.06
harukikjnwe	Yes	1.55K	0.1%	$1.55
test456743	Yes	1.54K	13.0%	$200
kingfisher	Yes	1.53K	5.9%	$90.64
brix	Yes	1.38K	0.1%	$1.38
pat777	Yes	1.37K	13.0%	$177.49
Notadegen333	Yes	1.36K	14.7%	$200
jorhdan	Yes	1.21K	0.1%	$1.21
shadowpup	Yes	1.18K	0.2%	$2.36	Dec 17, 5:37 PM UTC
parcimony7644	Yes	1.11K	12.0%	$133.32
cnsl78	Yes	1.05K	12.0%	$126.12
maxrg	Yes	1K	14.7%	$147.24
Reader_of_Vunjan	Yes	1K	10.0%	$100
Wcrossman5	Yes	1K	14.0%	$140
lavao	Yes	1K	0.1%	$1
Secret14thKey	Yes	1K	14.0%	$140
vesilin	Yes	980	0.1%	$0.98
Icy-Statistics	Yes	909.09	11.0%	$100
kouwei-vibes	Yes	835	12.0%	$100.2
Masterchief	Yes	833.33	12.0%	$100
Alec187	Yes	785.38	12.7%	$100
Alngrd	Yes	769.23	13.0%	$100
M0ike	Yes	764.18	13.1%	$100
gnomechomsky6544	Yes	763.58	13.1%	$100
JayEole	Yes	756.32	13.2%	$100
Jalvi94	Yes	750.96	13.6%	$102
dapocalypse	Yes	740.47	6.5%	$47.84
Recklessness	Yes	738.69	13.5%	$100
Cobalt Horizon A2B1	Yes	723.05	14.0%	$101.15
Omeeze	Yes	681.82	11.0%	$75
TEKRAMYLOP	Yes	666.67	15.0%	$100
WillKsky	Yes	661.64	13.5%	$89
OrokuSaki	Yes	622.62	13.0%	$80.94
JJJJJJkkk	Yes	616.63	14.6%	$90
icu072912	Yes	576.92	13.0%	$75
MAXXBowers	Yes	563.89	11.5%	$65
ArcherV	Yes	551.68	11.7%	$64.64
Dietcoke	Yes	546.36	11.0%	$60
chsmo69	Yes	526.67	15.0%	$79
toucan	Yes	510.99	13.7%	$70
Axel410	Yes	500.03	12.7%	$63.64
idfkanything	Yes	500	16.0%	$80
Sliceofmai	Yes	500	3.8%	$19
halav	Yes	500	10.0%	$50
Jdawesome10	Yes	500	14.0%	$70
jve0i	Yes	460	16.0%	$73.6
Truduluc	Yes	460	11.0%	$50.6
Colorless-Donut	Yes	454.55	11.0%	$50
XMikhailX	Yes	450	11.8%	$53
eetunotrus	Yes	418.83	11.9%	$50
Sardanapolus	Yes	386.6	15.0%	$57.99
0x4...b482	Yes	384.62	13.0%	$50
BigADXB	Yes	384.62	13.0%	$50
ElectionRizzard	Yes	376.07	14.9%	$56
sanbeyati	Yes	360.71	14.4%	$52
ifly21	Yes	343.54	13.0%	$44.66
AKCloudy25	Yes	290.32	12.2%	$35.38
Swar101	Yes	281.05	17.8%	$50
baileykim	Yes	260	0.1%	$0.26	Dec 11, 7:10 PM UTC
Jerexotic	Yes	250	12.0%	$30
Jaqk	Yes	222.22	13.5%	$30
chelovek	Yes	220	0.1%	$0.22
beastytectacles	Yes	200	13.0%	$26
dsilko	Yes	200	0.1%	$0.2	Dec 12, 3:15 PM UTC
demidovadasha	Yes	200	0.1%	$0.2
yooore	Yes	200	11.0%	$22
Ferre	Yes	192.31	13.0%	$25
Wary-Lipoprotein	Yes	188.2	12.2%	$22.94
Meyden	Yes	180	17.0%	$30.6
The-Juice	Yes	178.57	14.0%	$25
derPierre	Yes	172	12.0%	$20.64
Neon Orbit AB8E	Yes	160	0.1%	$0.16
Zdenci-13136	Yes	153.85	13.0%	$20
xhazzard12	Yes	150	10.0%	$15
Nannes	Yes	145.73	15.0%	$21.86
Spackula7	Yes	137.25	14.6%	$20
Veteer	Yes	130	0.1%	$0.13
Malcrux	Yes	117.65	17.0%	$20
Solar Horizon 8548	Yes	115.38	13.0%	$15
RamielScreams	Yes	114	14.0%	$15.96
Test0rnr	Yes	111.11	18.0%	$20
Omniscient	Yes	100	10.0%	$10
Dmitry68	Yes	100	14.0%	$14
randomisiert	Yes	100	13.0%	$13
Jyoti12	Yes	100	0.1%	$0.1
Jyoti14	Yes	100	0.1%	$0.1
Eskimo1400	Yes	90.91	11.0%	$10
BigOleShwagBag	Yes	90.91	11.0%	$10
CryLater	Yes	90.91	11.0%	$10
Dcampbell	Yes	90.91	11.0%	$10
SuperMT	Yes	86.64	11.0%	$9.53
Smokeyman	Yes	84.15	13.0%	$10.94
Polteog	Yes	80	0.1%	$0.08
twinsis	Yes	78.57	14.0%	$11
Experienced-Domain	Yes	76.92	13.0%	$10
Folkert	Yes	76.92	13.0%	$10
thejoker69	Yes	76.92	13.0%	$10
Wilz	Yes	74.92	12.0%	$8.99
PatSmith8001	Yes	71.43	14.0%	$10
ThomIsGone	Yes	71.43	14.0%	$10
Outstanding-Corsage	Yes	71.43	14.0%	$10
Europ00r	Yes	71.43	14.0%	$10
nnngme	Yes	60	0.1%	$0.06
JacETMS	Yes	58.82	17.0%	$10
chimgo	Yes	58.82	17.0%	$10
lilacpica97	Yes	56.6	15.0%	$8.49
PhenomZ	Yes	50	16.0%	$8
squarewave-180	Yes	50	11.0%	$5.5
Issss	Yes	50	10.0%	$5
Chin777	Yes	50	10.0%	$5
whitefishsalad1	Yes	50	12.0%	$6
Aldous	Yes	45.45	11.0%	$5
softpoop	Yes	41.67	12.0%	$5
St-Qc	Yes	40	12.0%	$4.8
trueSIGMA	Yes	40	14.0%	$5.6
luislisboa	Yes	39.33	15.0%	$5.9
jbet	Yes	38.46	13.0%	$5
RiverboatElliot	Yes	38.46	13.0%	$5
DaisyChain	Yes	38.46	13.0%	$5
dbeast990	Yes	38.46	13.0%	$5
DoctorFantastic	Yes	37.69	13.0%	$4.9
NoahJordy	Yes	35.71	14.0%	$5
ptpro	Yes	35.71	14.0%	$5
blacklemon	Yes	35.71	14.0%	$5
Rabliep	Yes	31.82	11.0%	$3.5
huangkdoi	Yes	30	0.1%	$0.03
daniel-test1	Yes	29.41	17.0%	$5
Casey555	Yes	29.13	15.0%	$4.37
NorGlad	Yes	27.27	11.0%	$3
cuno	Yes	25.46	3.1%	$0.8
Turtleku	Yes	25	12.0%	$3
thatboyjony	Yes	25	1.0%	$0.25
blessingy	Yes	20	0.1%	$0.02	Dec 14, 9:41 AM UTC
pol666	Yes	20	0.1%	$0.02
xxxee	Yes	20	0.1%	$0.02	Dec 11, 2:14 PM UTC
adelinay	Yes	20	0.1%	$0.02
kkooj	Yes	20	0.1%	$0.02	Dec 11, 2:14 PM UTC
cfdfew	Yes	20	0.1%	$0.02	Dec 11, 2:14 PM UTC
wwsdr	Yes	20	0.1%	$0.02	Dec 11, 2:14 PM UTC
bridgety	Yes	20	0.1%	$0.02	Dec 14, 9:37 AM UTC
LuckyLam	Yes	20	19.0%	$3.8
yyhhu	Yes	20	0.1%	$0.02	Dec 11, 2:14 PM UTC
yeskdofff	Yes	20	0.1%	$0.02
00000000011111111	Yes	20	0.1%	$0.02
pol333	Yes	20	0.1%	$0.02
ttyyt	Yes	20	0.1%	$0.02	Dec 11, 2:14 PM UTC
acencarp10	Yes	20	14.0%	$2.8
loookkdffe	Yes	20	0.1%	$0.02	Dec 16, 6:19 AM UTC
33333300000000	Yes	20	0.1%	$0.02
00004444	Yes	20	0.1%	$0.02
eerrtg	Yes	20	0.1%	$0.02	Dec 11, 2:14 PM UTC
adolfoy	Yes	20	0.1%	$0.02
dx82i	Yes	18.18	11.0%	$2
Andy9373836	Yes	14.29	14.0%	$2
ER02CB	Yes	13.33	15.0%	$2
1N3L	Yes	12.57	4.7%	$0.59
Chilomanco	Yes	12.5	16.0%	$2
Fatboy	Yes	11.76	17.0%	$2
lethalcheese	Yes	10.83	12.0%	$1.3
dgsdgg	Yes	10	0.1%	$0.01
vuvpwoith	Yes	10	12.0%	$1.2
pissfacemcgillicuddy	Yes	10	14.0%	$1.4
ynumt	Yes	10	0.1%	$0.01
aswwws	Yes	10	0.1%	$0.01
yumujy	Yes	10	0.1%	$0.01
bringitalone	Yes	10	13.0%	$1.3
GHIGI	Yes	10	0.1%	$0.01
ggtttr	Yes	10	0.1%	$0.01
ddttty	Yes	10	0.1%	$0.01
dfgsgf	Yes	10	0.1%	$0.01
hrffs	Yes	10	0.1%	$0.01
bbvvn	Yes	10	0.1%	$0.01
hhjfgf	Yes	10	0.1%	$0.01
fgbnfgn	Yes	10	0.1%	$0.01
ccvffr	Yes	10	0.1%	$0.01
Kristjan	Yes	10	12.0%	$1.2
ddgggt	Yes	10	0.1%	$0.01
zzssd	Yes	10	0.1%	$0.01
fgbfgn	Yes	10	0.1%	$0.01
ffasvx	Yes	10	0.1%	$0.01
ggddee	Yes	10	0.1%	$0.01
pol777	Yes	10	0.1%	$0.01
pol888	Yes	10	0.1%	$0.01
ggddei	Yes	10	0.1%	$0.01
CheckW	Yes	10	10.0%	$1
thngn	Yes	10	0.1%	$0.01
zzssw	Yes	10	0.1%	$0.01
ccddf	Yes	10	0.1%	$0.01
dgasda	Yes	10	0.1%	$0.01
pol111	Yes	10	0.1%	$0.01
nghnt	Yes	10	0.1%	$0.01
ShiroAdams	Yes	10	1.0%	$0.1
aawww	Yes	10	0.1%	$0.01
fghdfdf	Yes	10	0.1%	$0.01
cvsaved	Yes	10	0.1%	$0.01
hhttyt	Yes	10	0.1%	$0.01
aaaade	Yes	10	0.1%	$0.01
fgbnghm	Yes	10	0.1%	$0.01
ouestoeuf	Yes	10	12.0%	$1.2
0500KJIOHJ	Yes	10	0.1%	$0.01
xdfvsg	Yes	10	0.1%	$0.01
cvbcghv	Yes	10	0.1%	$0.01
cgbfgf	Yes	10	0.1%	$0.01
sdfvsdgf	Yes	10	0.1%	$0.01
fgnfyg	Yes	10	0.1%	$0.01
sfffgrr	Yes	10	0.1%	$0.01
Afi2000	Yes	7.69	13.0%	$1
NaNiBy	Yes	7.69	13.0%	$1
Wobbly-Nonsense	Yes	7.14	14.0%	$1
coffana	Yes	7.14	14.0%	$1
CFO	Yes	6.67	15.0%	$1
Peaceful-Marines	Yes	6.25	16.0%	$1
livermorego	Yes	5	0.1%	$0.01
Celebrated-Haze	Yes	3.42	3.8%	$0.13
il3vtherage	Yes	2.73	11.0%	$0.3
chuzu	Yes	1.82	11.0%	$0.2
phroge	Yes	1.78	3.1%	$0.06
Emerald Beacon F675	Yes	1.01	5.7%	$0.06
Emerald Beacon F675	No	1	88.0%	$0.88
0xbonvivant	Yes	1	13.0%	$0.13
2ymark	Yes	1	10.0%	$0.1
feyen	Yes	1	16.0%	$0.16
WyomingJoe123	Yes	0.92	13.0%	$0.12
theodark	Yes	0.59	17.0%	$0.1
PDMcN	Yes	0.29	14.0%	$0.04
gamailo	Yes	0.28	18.0%	$0.05
sosga	No	0.14	85.0%	$0.12

270 of 270 positions.

Holders by valueThe same holders, ranked by what their position is worth now.

Trader	Holding value
Indigo Signal 2966	$2.07M
sosga	$0.14
CaseScaglione	$0

Analytics