Analytics
Resolved No on 7 Nov 2024.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 1.1% on 13 Jan 2024. Before it settled, across the 300 daily closes on record from 13 Jan 2024 to 7 Nov 2024, the highest close was 1.8% on 17 Apr 2024 and the lowest 0.1% on 4 Nov 2024. $20.96M traded over the market's life.
392 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Nov 8, 8:03 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 300 points, 13 Jan 2024 – 7 Nov 2024, chart shows 0%–10%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 13 Jan 2024 | 1.1% |
| 7 Nov 2024 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 2.65M |
| Meta2024 | Yes | 244.94K |
| Bare-Almond | Yes | 30.03K |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither a democrat-nominated nor a republican-nominated candidate for the 2024 US presidential election wins. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If there is a tie in electoral votes between a democrat-nominated and republican-nominated candidate (and all third party candidates trail both), this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting on the final electoral college tally based on which territories each candidate wins.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/electoral-college-margin-of-victory-in-the-2024-presidential-election
| parallax | Yes | 25K |
| ER01MM | Yes | 21.03K |
| ER03PT | Yes | 20.2K |
| ER04OK | Yes | 16.53K |
| vfssdfggqergrgwrrgwt | Yes | 13.11K |
| Phluff | Yes | 10K |
| ER02CB | Yes | 5.5K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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