Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jan 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99%. Yes opened at 16.5% on 19 Nov 2024. Before it settled, across the 44 daily closes on record from 19 Nov 2024 to 1 Jan 2025, the highest close was 18.5% on 20 Nov 2024 and the lowest 1% on 31 Dec 2024. $93.4K traded over the market's life.
33 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 2, 8:11 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 44 points, 19 Nov 2024 – 1 Jan 2025, chart shows 0%–25%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 19 Nov 2024 | 16.5% |
| 1 Jan 2025 | 1.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| CenterPrinyatijaReshenij | Yes | 2.24K |
| ProfiEasy | Yes | 1.33K |
| YES | Yes | 999.99 |
| TimeofTim | Yes | 964.94 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Crimean Bridge (Kerch Bridge) is the subject of a kinetic strike between November 17 and December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Missile/drone strikes which are shot down or don't hit the bridge will not be considered for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/crimean-bridge-before-2025
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
| veltbear50 | Yes | 705.3 |
| Susssy | Yes | 693.31 |
| Bogr | Yes | 372.4 |
| Bilboa | Yes | 277.78 |
| lastiteration | Yes | 229.29 |
| mspro | Yes | 137.5 |
