Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jul 2024.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 98.6%. Yes opened at 3.5% on 28 Feb 2024. Before it settled, across the 125 daily closes on record from 28 Feb 2024 to 1 Jul 2024, the highest close was 5.5% on 30 Mar 2024 and the lowest 0.4% on 23 Jun 2024. $44.18K traded over the market's life.
1 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jul 1, 6:41 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 125 points, 28 Feb 2024 – 1 Jul 2024, chart shows 0%–10%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 28 Feb 2024 | 3.5% |
| 1 Jul 2024 | 1.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| baggot | No | 0.01 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Craig Steven Wright is proven to be Bitcoin creator "Satoshi Nakamoto", or part of a collective called "Satoshi Nakamoto", by June 30, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be definitive evidence that Craig Steven Wright is the creator of Bitcoin, such as a transfer from one of the original Satoshi wallets, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/craig-wright-proven-to-be-satoshi-before-july
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