Will Claude Sonnet 5.1+ debut at an output token price of at least $10 by June 30, 2027?

techResolved

Yes, settled Sep 29, 2026 UTC

Yes

100.0%

0.0%

Final Yes 100¢Final No 0¢

Lifetime volume

$4.8K

Resolved

Yes

Settled

Sep 29, 2026 UTC

Topic roomBest AI Model

Where it stands

Resolved Yes on 29 Sep 2026.

The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 98.5%. Yes opened at 72.5% on 25 Sep 2026. Before it settled, across the 5 daily closes on record from 25 Sep 2026 to 29 Sep 2026, the highest close was 98.5% on 29 Sep 2026 and the lowest 72.5% on 25 Sep 2026. Its largest one-day move was 17 points up, to 98.5% on 29 Sep 2026. $4.78K traded over the market's life.

5 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Sep 30, 8:16 AM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 5 points, 25 Sep 2026 – 29 Sep 2026, chart shows 60%–100%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
.Menthe	No	50
Azure Signal DA85	No	38
PPMT	No	30
bjprolo	No	10

5 of 5 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Claude Sonnet model (5.1+) debuts at a standard output token price of at least the specified price, in USD per million tokens. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Sonnet" and be designated as version 5.1 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 5.1 or higher named in the same manner as Claude Sonnet 4.6 or Claude Sonnet 5 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Claude Sonnet 6, while models whose name does not include "Sonnet" or which retain a version designation below 5.1, such as Claude Sonnet 5, including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. The debut price is the “Base tokens” output price for default global inference, at the rate that does not trigger a long-context surcharge, announced by Anthropic or listed on its official API pricing page when the model is first made available to the general public. An introductory price qualifies. Batch, fast mode, cached, US-only inference, and other data-residency prices do not qualify. If multiple qualifying models debut on the same date, the highest qualifying price applies. If no qualifying model is made available to the general public by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, including its official API pricing page (https://platform.claude.com/docs/en/about-claude/pricing), with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.