Analytics
Resolved No on 1 May 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.1%. Yes opened at 14% on 15 Apr 2025. Before it settled, across the 17 daily closes on record from 15 Apr 2025 to 1 May 2025, the highest close was 14% on 15 Apr 2025 and the lowest 0.9% on 30 Apr 2025. Its largest one-day move was 6 points down, to 5.5% on 21 Apr 2025. $4.94K traded over the market's life.
4 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of May 2, 8:20 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 17 points, 15 Apr 2025 – 1 May 2025, chart shows 0%–20%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 15 Apr 2025 | 14.0% |
| 1 May 2025 | 0.9% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| moongatandAk | Yes | 168.5 |
| pheegn542 | No | 2.89 |
| SAMF | No | 0.02 |
| theamityaff | No | 0.01 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine claims a new capture of a soldier from the People's Republic of China between April 14 and April 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". To qualify for a "Yes" resolution, Ukraine must both capture the soldier and announce their nationality within this market's timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the government of Ukraine, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/chinese-soldier-caught-in-ukraine-before-may
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
