Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.9%. Yes opened at 2.4% on 21 Nov 2025. Before it settled, across the 43 daily closes on record from 21 Nov 2025 to 1 Jan 2026, the highest close was 3.8% on 22 Nov 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 1 Jan 2026. $178.18K traded over the market's life.
83 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 2, 8:31 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 43 points, 21 Nov 2025 – 1 Jan 2026, chart shows 0%–10%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 21 Nov 2025 | 2.4% |
| 1 Jan 2026 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Rizzouuu | Yes | 34.11K |
| Decimal-Browser | Yes | 838.76 |
| BTCpanda | Yes | 682.5 |
| Anthala | Yes | 624.96 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if either China (People's Republic of China) or Japan formally announces that they have suspended diplomatic relations with the other by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source will be official information from either the Chinese or Japanese government; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/china-x-japan-sever-diplomatic-relations-in-2025
| tailevent | Yes | 599.97 |
| TungstenTamaki | Yes | 499.97 |
| hardraver | Yes | 410 |
| Modest-Hardcover | Yes | 399.99 |
| Fox2323 | Yes | 346.77 |
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 345.44 |
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