Analytics
Resolved No on 23 Oct 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 98.4%. Yes opened at 71.5% on 9 Oct 2025. Before it settled, across the 15 daily closes on record from 9 Oct 2025 to 23 Oct 2025, the highest close was 72.5% on 10 Oct 2025 and the lowest 1.6% on 23 Oct 2025. Its largest one-day move was 49 points down, to 1.6% on 23 Oct 2025. $8.05K traded over the market's life.
14 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 24, 8:27 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 15 points, 9 Oct 2025 – 23 Oct 2025
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 9 Oct 2025 | 71.5% |
| 23 Oct 2025 | 1.6% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 308.99 |
| Evrofutbol | Yes | 180.99 |
| lissartter | Yes | 157.35 |
| Inferior-Similarity | Yes | 99.98 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
Churchill Downs is estimated to release earnings on October 22, 2025. The Street consensus estimate for Churchill Downs's GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $1.00. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Churchill Downs reports GAAP EPS greater than $1.00 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents. If Churchill Downs releases earnings without GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve to “No”. If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.” Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024). Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from SeekingAlpha estimates, and reflect the consensus of sell-side analyst estimates for GAAP EPS. Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS. Note: For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless this is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS. Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated.
Resolution source: https://seekingalpha.com/
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/chdn-quarterly-earnings-gaap-eps-10-22-2025-1
| Bright Signal 14DE | Yes | 70 |
| OU812TSK | Yes | 56.6 |
| NO.APPLE | Yes | 10.95 |
| William202510 | Yes | 10 |
| Jacyniu | Yes | 8 |
| Swerdi | Yes | 2.7 |
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