Analytics
Resolved No on 16 Aug 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 65.5%. Yes opened at 10.5% on 8 Aug 2026. Before it settled, across the 9 daily closes on record from 8 Aug 2026 to 16 Aug 2026, the highest close was 42% on 14 Aug 2026 and the lowest 4.5% on 15 Aug 2026. Its largest one-day move was 38 points down, to 4.5% on 15 Aug 2026. $241.41 traded over the market's life.
2 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Aug 16, 8:54 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 9 points, 8 Aug 2026 – 16 Aug 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 8 Aug 2026 | 10.5% |
| 16 Aug 2026 | 34.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| bjprolo | Yes | 12 |
| Coral Kestrel 34EC | Yes | 2.94 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's ChatGPT experiences any incident classified as 'Partial/Full Outage' on the specified calendar day (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. ChatGPT will be considered to have experienced a qualifying incident on the specified day if the OpenAI Status Page for ChatGPT (status.openai.com) displays that day’s status box as a shade of red indicating Partial/Full Outage once it is finalized. (green indicates "No incidents", yellow indicates "Degraded performance"). A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box is added on the Status Page. Only incidents listing ChatGPT under 'Affected components' will be considered. Incidents labeled as affecting 'APIs,' 'Codex,' 'FedRamp,' or 'Ads Platform,' but not ChatGPT, will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. This market will remain open until the specified day’s status box is finalized and all incidents that began during the specified date have been resolved. Revisions that change an incident’s impact classification to or from 'Partial/Full Outage' will be considered if the revision is published before the specified day’s status box is finalized or before all incidents that began during the specified date have been resolved. This market will resolve once the specified day’s status box is finalized, provided no incident that began during the specified date is ongoing. In case of an ongoing incident the market will remain open until the incident is marked as “Resolved” and all relevant data has been released. If the incident in question is not resolved or all relevant data has not been released by the end of the seventh day after the specified date, this market will resolve based on the data available at that time. The primary resolution source for this market will be official system status information published by OpenAI on status.openai.com; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/chatgpt-outage-onptptpt-20260806133118510
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