What is the “CDC issues Level 4 warning by December 31?” market asking?

It asks whether the following will happen: CDC issues Level 4 warning by December 31? Traders buy Yes shares if they think it will and No shares if they think it will not.

What do the Yes and No prices mean?

At the last observation Yes traded at 100.0¢ and No at 0.0¢. A Yes share pays $1 if the market resolves Yes, so its price is the market's implied probability: 100.0% for Yes and 0.0% for No. The two prices add up to about one dollar.

When does this market close?

Trading is scheduled to close on Dec 31, 2026. After the close no new trades are accepted and the outcome is settled by the resolution source.

How does this market resolve?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC issues a Level 4 (“Avoid All Travel”) Travel Health Notice for any disease by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A Level 4 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

What is the difference between volume, liquidity and open interest?

24h volume ($79.48K) is the dollar value of shares traded in the last 24 hours. Volume measures activity, liquidity measures how easily you can trade, and open interest measures how much is at stake.

Who holds the biggest positions in this market?

Vultax loaded 44 public holder wallets for this market; the largest ten hold 83.6% of the loaded shares. The Holders view lists them by size on each side, and every wallet links to its trader profile.

Where does this data come from and how fresh is it?

Prices, the order book, holders and the trade tape come from Polymarket's public order book and data API. Vultax records each observation with its own timestamp (market facts last updated Aug 5, 7:52 PM) and shows a value as unavailable rather than as zero when a source has not answered.

Can I trade this market on Vultax?

No. Vultax is a research and paper-trading terminal; it does not execute orders. The trade controls open the official market on Polymarket (https://polymarket.com/event/cdc-issues-level-4-warning-by-december-31-647) or the Vultax predictions monitor, where you can track the market and paper trade it.

CDC issues Level 4 warning by December 31? | Polymarket odds & analytics

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Analytics

Predictions Analytics

CDC issues Level 4 warning by December 31? | Polymarket odds & analytics | Vultax

Market referencecdc-issues-level-4-warning-by-december-31-647Updated Aug 5, 2026

Closed

Scheduled close Dec 31, 2026

Yes

100.0%

0.0%

Observed Yes 100¢Observed No 0¢

24h Volume

$79.5K

Scheduled close

Dec 31, 2026

Overview Prices Holders Trades

Source Evidence

Evidence coverage

Items

Fetched

Latest

Aug 13, 2026

Public Polymarket market/event context is available; Vultax source-pack coverage is tracked separately.

Depth

Observed

Aug 5, 2026

This resolved market has no live orderbook depth; the public close quote is shown for context.

Trading stateMarket usability at the displayed observation.

Market state

Closed

Order book

Captured book available

Observed Yes

100.0%

The venue reports this market closed, but no resolved outcome is inferred.

Holder depthCapped public top-holder sample.

Rows loaded

Wallets

Top 10 share

84%

Yes / No shares

171.61 / 3.07K

Rows reflect the positive holders returned for this market, not venue-wide open interest.

Recent tapeLatest public market trades.

Trades loaded

433

Wallets

170

Loaded notional

PricesPolymarket CLOB price history · 1440 min sampling · latest observation Aug 4, 12:00 AM

Depth historyCheckSubscriber depth access is checked only when requested, keeping the public page fast.

Bucket	Close	Mid
Aug 4, 12:00 AM	15.0%	15.0%
Aug 3, 12:00 AM	13.0%	13.0%
Aug 2, 12:00 AM	13.5%	13.5%

Questions

Questions about this market

What is the “CDC issues Level 4 warning by December 31?” market asking?: It asks whether the following will happen: CDC issues Level 4 warning by December 31? Traders buy Yes shares if they think it will and No shares if they think it will not.
What do the Yes and No prices mean?: At the last observation Yes traded at 100.0¢ and No at 0.0¢. A Yes share pays $1 if the market resolves Yes, so its price is the market's implied probability: 100.0% for Yes and 0.0% for No. The two prices add up to about one dollar.
When does this market close?: Trading is scheduled to close on Dec 31, 2026. After the close no new trades are accepted and the outcome is settled by the resolution source.
How does this market resolve?: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC issues a Level 4 (“Avoid All Travel”) Travel Health Notice for any disease by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A Level 4 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
What is the difference between volume, liquidity and open interest?: 24h volume ($79.48K) is the dollar value of shares traded in the last 24 hours. Volume measures activity, liquidity measures how easily you can trade, and open interest measures how much is at stake.
Who holds the biggest positions in this market?