Analytics
Resolved Yes on 29 Sep 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 86%. Yes opened at 78% on 27 Sep 2025. Before it settled, across the 3 daily closes on record from 27 Sep 2025 to 29 Sep 2025, the highest close was 86% on 29 Sep 2025 and the lowest 78% on 27 Sep 2025. Its largest one-day move was 7 points up, to 86% on 29 Sep 2025. $12.1K traded over the market's life.
13 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 3, 10:30 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 3 points, 27 Sep 2025 – 29 Sep 2025, chart shows 75%–90%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 27 Sep 2025 | 78.0% |
| 29 Sep 2025 | 86.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| TimeTraveler | No | 1.64K |
| lissartter | No | 800.86 |
| Pimzi | No | 100 |
| trashtrader | No | 72.55 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
Carnival Corporation is estimated to release earnings on September 29, 2025. The Street consensus estimate for Carnival Corporation’s non-GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $1.32. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Carnival Corporation reports non-GAAP EPS greater than $1.32 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the non-GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents. If Carnival Corporation releases earnings without non-GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the non-GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents; or, if not published there, according to the GAAP EPS provided by SeekingAlpha. If no GAAP EPS number is available from either source at that time, the market will resolve to “No.” (For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless it is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.) If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.” Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced non-GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution. Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from SeekingAlpha estimates, and reflect the consensus of sell-side analyst estimates for non-GAAP EPS. Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS. Note: If multiple versions of non-GAAP EPS are published, the market will resolve according to the primary headline non-GAAP EPS number, which is typically presented on a diluted basis. If diluted is not published, then basic non-GAAP EPS will qualify.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/ccl-quarterly-earnings-nongaap-eps-2025-09-29-1pt32
| Ocelot89 | No | 22.71 |
| SiKibi | No | 22.22 |
| RudolphSteiner | No | 14.55 |
| stadtmotte | No | 13.64 |
| Zebby99 | No | 10 |
| Thedanwatson | No | 6.67 |
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