Analytics
The Up side is at 46.5%, down 15 points from 61.5% when the market opened on 28 Jan 2026.
Across the 262 daily closes on record from 28 Jan 2026 to 27 Oct 2026 (11 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 83.5% on 30 Jan 2026 and the lowest 10.5% on 24 Aug 2026. A week before that last close the Up side was at 46.5%; a month before, 12.5%. Its largest one-day move was 32 points up, to 44% on 30 Sep 2026.
$2.23K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $268.14, with a 53.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 83 trades, $440.68 bought Up and $600.45 bought Down.
The largest Up position is Forthright-Armpit with 310 shares; the largest Down position is Simon4s with 191. Ten wallets hold 77.8% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 May 2027.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 26, 11:02 PM UTC
The paper ticket needs a verified Yes / No pair, which this market does not have here.
Open in PredictionsDaily closes of the Up price, Polymarket CLOB, 262 points, 28 Jan 2026 – 27 Oct 2026
| Observed | Up price |
|---|---|
| 28 Jan 2026 | 61.5% |
| 27 Oct 2026 | 46.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Forthright-Armpit | Up | 309.51 |
| Simon4s | Down | 191.26 |
| Radiant-Anarchy | Down | 166.83 |
This market will resolve to "Up" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is greater than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025. This market will resolve to "Down" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is less than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025. If the population in the 4th quarter of 2025 and the population in the 4th quarter of 2026 are exactly equal, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the relevant quarterly population estimate release is not available by April 30, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start). Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/canadas-population-up-or-down-this-year
| Feminine-Hint | Down | 69.54 |
| Defenseless-Eyebrow | Up | 60.02 |
| b41eAd279375742D6C2A1A2239Bdce56376411fD. | Up | 54.66 |
| Arkapsch | Down | 46.51 |
| bonesbonesbones | Up | 33.62 |
| PadreMaronno | Down | 33.49 |
| Gennedy | Up | 31.24 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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