Analytics
Yes is at 71.8%, up 22 points from 50% when the market opened on 2 Jul 2026.
Across the 115 daily closes on record from 2 Jul 2026 to 28 Oct 2026 (5 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 81% on 28 Sep 2026 and the lowest 50% on 2 Jul 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 67.5%; a month before, 81%. Its largest one-day move was 18 points up, to 67.5% on 3 Jul 2026.
$859.89 traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $81.04, with a 46.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 21 trades, $105.93 bought Yes and $77.16 bought No.
The largest Yes position is i2dt with 55 shares; the largest No position is 0x49F206 with 20.
Trading closes on 4 Nov 2026, 7 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 28, 2:26 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 115 points, 2 Jul 2026 – 28 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 2 Jul 2026 | 50.0% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 71.8% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| i2dt | Yes | 55 |
| Nutty-User-Subcontractor | Yes | 20 |
| 0x49F206 | No | 20 |
Proposition 2 is a California ballot measure currently scheduled for voting on November 3, 2026. It would allow the state to deposit up to 20% of its general fund tax revenue into its rainy day fund each year, instead of the current 10%. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the specified ballot measure is approved by a majority of voters at the California statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of California, including the California Secretary of State (https://www.sos.ca.gov/).
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/california-rainy-day-fund-proposition
| vbtgr |
| No |
| 20 |
| bechamel | No | 20 |
| xtxpleasecallme | No | 10 |
| Avaricious-Realm | No | 6 |
| Slackjaw | Yes | 2.89 |
| Indigo Meteor 678C | No | 1.89 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
