Analytics
Yes is at 67.5%, up 22 points from 46% when the market opened on 2 Jul 2026.
The high was 77.5% on 3 Jul 2026 and the low 33% on 7 Jul 2026. A week ago Yes was at 53%; a month ago, 60.5%. Its largest one-day move was 32 points up, to 77.5% on 3 Jul 2026.
$3.18K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $1.36K, with a 43.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 98 trades, $362.3 bought Yes and $486.83 bought No.
The largest Yes position is dropmeplease with 97 shares; the largest No position is bonalddrunk with 143. Ten wallets hold 89% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 4 Nov 2026, 15 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 20, 7:17 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 111 points, 2 Jul 2026 – 20 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 2 Jul 2026 | 46.0% |
| 20 Oct 2026 | 48.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| bonalddrunk | No | 143.3 |
| dropmeplease | Yes | 97 |
| i2dt | No | 85.77 |
Proposition 38 is a California ballot measure currently scheduled for voting on November 3, 2026. It would allow the state to borrow $8.4 billion in debt to research immune system-based technologies for treating conditions including cancer, heart disease and Alzheimer’s. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the specified ballot measure is approved by a majority of voters at the California statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of California, including the California Secretary of State (https://www.sos.ca.gov/).
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/california-immunology-research-bond-proposition
| nicoco89 |
| Yes |
| 80.74 |
| AJSV | No | 69.74 |
| oliman2 | Yes | 51.43 |
| b41eAd279375742D6C2A1A2239Bdce56376411fD. | No | 40 |
| Indigo Meteor 678C | Yes | 38.33 |
| justmeandme | Yes | 33 |
| tiongbu | Yes | 22 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
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